We have arrived at the most exciting time of the year. A strong field will, weather permitting, take the green flag Sunday for the 108th Indianapolis 500. At least a third of the field has a chance to win. Several variables were in play before the dreaded R word entered the picture. Will we see the engine issues that appeared in qualifying? Both Chevy and Honda have changed engines at a rapid rate this season. Will tire degradation be sufficient to make for a good race? Are six rookies a cause for concern?

It has been a long time since the series has seen such a plague of engine issues. Chevrolet had at least six problems with plenum fires in qualifying runs. Honda changed a car’s engine at the slightest hint of trouble. In all as of Saturday, the two OEMs switched more than a dozen powerplants.

Reliability could be what determines a driver’s fate on race day. Late race drama could be in the offing.

From last night

Carb Day- Weather, Schedule, Notes

Tires

In a media availability on Monday, Colton Herta said that the tire degradation was similar to last year, and possibly a little less. I hope there is enough wear to provide for some good racing, especially on the final stint. I have a feeling someone might gamble on a long stint, if they believe rain is coming. The strategy would turn the race into a fuel saving exercise as well. Ugh.

Rookies

Six Indianapolis 500 rookies-Kyle Larson, Christian Rasmussen, Linus Lundqvist, Marcus Armstrong, Tom Blomqvist, and Kyffin Simpson-will start their first 500. This is about as talented a rookie class as we have seen at IMS. How will they fare? In 2022, nearly all the first year drivers were involved in incidents. I don’t think that will happen Sunday, but I expect a couple of these drivers to have issues on track.

Red Flag

The rule I want- if the red flag isn’t wet, don’t wave it.

What will happen- Indycar seems determined to have a green flag finish. As we saw last year, this is a dangerous policy which leads to more accidents.

I hope the latest caution is around lap 172, so there is no reason for a controversial finish like 2023.

I would even take a rain shortened race over a finish like last year.

Weather-or Not?

There will be no decision on delays or postponements until Sunday. I understand the reason for this. Indycar and IMS want to run the race on its appointed day if at all possible. Please be patient as officials decide what to do. Theer are a lot of moving parts to a postponement for the series, their broadcast partners, and also the fans.

We have been spoiled with 17 straight races without weather interference. Historically, we are part due for a messy race day. I sincerely hope it won’t be as bad as 2004 or the disastrous 1973.

The Winner

Assuming the race goes full distance without interruption, even if it is Monday, I like Alexander Rossi to get his second victory. He has been racy all week, and he nearly broke up the Penske front row party. His teammate Pato O’Ward is my second choice. Among the Hondas, the Andretti duo of Colton Herta and Kyle Kirkwood have the best chance. They have been very fast in race trim.