An international star, engine reliability, a struggling power team, and an intriguing front row have come together to create what should be a competitive, compelling race on Sunday. All these factors should come into play at some point during the race. Fernando Alonso has created quite a buzz as he goes into his first race. He seems to be comfortable in the car and on the track. Scott Dixon and Helio Castroneves look for the final piece of their legacies. Honda teams hope they have engines that will go the distance. Local hero Ed Carpenter couldn’t win the race from either of his pole starts, but he is hoping that starting second works out better. Alexander Rossi, the defending champion, backs up his title with a front row start.
Alonso has been Indy’s media star this month. The international exposure hasn’t hurt. He has done very well so far. I expect him to do well in the race, and finish in the top ten, perhaps even a top five. Pit stops will be a key factor for him as well as race traffic. During Monday’s practice he seemed very much at ease passing other cars. How he handles the flying start in a three wide formation may tell us how his race might go.
Honda cars very much have the advantage at the track, but their engines have had issues during the month. At least five have blown, including two in the Grand Prix. Can one last the distance and win? Alonso’s engine had a precautionary change before qualifying Sunday. Honda also lost a strong contender with Sebastien Bourdais’ crash last Saturday.
Team Penske has symbolized the struggles Chevy has had this month. They seem to have less straight line speed than the Hondas. Chevrolet entries had trouble keeping pace with the Hondas Monday. Will Power, Ed Carpenter , J.R. Hildebrand, and Sage Karam seem to be the best of the bowties. Still, I look for the Penske cars of Castroneves, Juan Pablo Montoya, and Josef Newgarden to be players toward the middle of the race. I think Montoya will move up quickly.
Scott Dixon, Tony Kanaan, and Ryan Hunter-Reay are the strongest Hondas. Hunter-Reay will be in the top five very quickly, and will battle for the lead after the first stop. If the Andretti team can avoid the gremlins that have plagued their cars all season, the race will be between these three. In Monday’s practice, Dixon and Kanaan looked the strongest on track.
Ed Carpenter will contend early. If he can stay out of trouble, he will be one to watch near the end. He has the speed to stay with the Hondas. His teammate Hildebrand should also also be in the mix. We may see an early charge to the front by Carpenter unless Dixon pulls away at the start.
Dark horses- Alexander Rossi, Marco Andretti, Alonso, and Ed Jones should all have great days. Jones has been quietly going about his rookie season. I would not dismiss his chances for a good finish. Rossi will provide a strong title defense. Marco could erase years of frustration and set up for a decent season.
Turn 2- This was a challenging part of the track last weekend. In addition to the terrifying Bourdais crash, several cars clipped the wall in nearly the same spot. The wall in front of the Fuzzy’s suite may not stay white for long. I hope everyone gets through on lap 1.
Oh yes- I’m supposed to make a prediction. I am going against recent history here. Scott Dixon will win his second 500. He has not had the engine issues other Hondas have had. It has been eight years since we’ve had a winner from pole, so the timing is right. It has also been six years since someone has won from the first three rows. He will lead the majority of laps, but this will not be an easy win.
The rest of the race:
Rookie of the Year– Fernando Alonso will probably win this, although Ed Jones will make a very strong case for himself.
Cautions- 7 for 55 laps.
Highest Placing Chevy– Will Power, a top 5
First out- Jack Harvey
The Pit Window by Mike Silver 